Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote a research report relating to Take-Two financial results, in which he revealed that an Xbox One and PS 4 release of GTA 5 will not be as popular as the Xbox 360 and PS 3 versions.
“We think that GTA 5 sales were front-end loaded, and a next generation version of the game is unlikely to achieve its historical attach rates,” He motivated his opinions by adding that “we believe that few gamers who intended to purchase GTA held off their purchases at launch, given that it has as yet to be announced for next-generation consoles.”
As for his thoughts about the launch of next-generation console variant of the game, he wrote that they “will have great appeal to those next generation console purchasers who have not yet purchased the current generation version, but we think this is a small subset of next generation console purchasers in 2013 – 2014.”
Patcher doesn’t have big expectations about GTA contribution to Rockstar’s funds.
“We are also pessimistic that GTA Online will contribute meaningful profits in the next fiscal year,” declared Pachter. “The game is available only to consumers who purchase GTA 5, limiting the addressable market to a fraction of the typical multiplayer audience.”
The numbers show it obviously: “While it is clear that the game has monetized well, it was only a portion of the $132.8 million in digital revenues Take-Two generated during the quarter. We think it is important to note that Take-Two generated $105.5 million in digital revenue during the prior quarter, suggesting that at most, GTA Online is contributing $27 million per quarter.”
Patcher thinks that the game can be expanded by making it free for all users. We will see if Rockstar will keep in mind his opinion.